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County population expected to surpass 800K by 2060

Turlock to reach over 100K by 2045

POSTED August 4, 2016 5:58 p.m.

An additional 64,000 people are expected to call Stanislaus County home by the year 2025, according to a recent forecast by the Center for Business and Policy Research at the University of the Pacific.

The report estimates the county’s population will be 571,139 by 2020 and reach 836,635 by 2060.

Although Modesto maintains the largest population share of the county, that share is forecasted to decrease from 38.89 percent of the county’s population in 2015 to 37.40 percent in 2060. Turlock remains the second largest city in the county throughout the forecast, with population growth expected to go from 72,229 in 2015 to 81,219 in 2025, and reaching over 100,000 residents by 2045.

Because of the annexation of a portion of the unincorporated part of the county, Patterson will see the largest increase in population share rising from 4.26 percent of the county’s population in 2015 to 6.39 percent in 2060.

Growth is expected to be largest in the Asian and Hispanic populations in the coming years, according to the report.

While the Asian population is expected to increase over 150 percent from 2010 to 2060, the initial population is so small that this growth will only add 40,000 residents to Stanislaus County during that time period. The largest driver of growth will be the Hispanic population, which will nearly double from 2010 to 2060, adding 214,000 residents to the county. Growth in the White population will be the smallest during the forecast horizon, adding only 40,000 residents. This amounts to a total increase of 19 percent. The Hispanic population is expected to become more populous than the White population in 2018.

There will be an expected 199,071 households in Stanislaus County by 2025, with a housing unit need of 209,529. More than 29,000 housing units will be needed in Turlock alone by 2025.

According to the 2013 American Community Survey, Turlock had a total of occupied 23,394 housing units. Of these units, 12,430 were owner occupied and 10,864 were renter occupied. The highest percentage of both owners and renters lived in single-family residences. Over 90 percent of owner households lived in single-family detached homes. In renter households, 41 percent lived in single-family detached homes, 12 percent lived in single-family attached homes, and 8 percent lived in 3 to 4 unit buildings.

Having enough housing units — especially for low-income families — will be a challenge in the coming years for Turlock.

"We need additional housing units and our greatest demand is affordable housing," said Maryn Pitt, assistant to the city manager for housing and economic development.

"The good news is housing prices have recovered since 2006, however, housing is far less affordable for families making minimum wage," she continued.

Pitt said that there are 680 people on the waiting list for the City's newest affordable housing apartment complex, Avena Bella, and only two families have moved out since it opened in 2013. There are 500 people on the interest list for planned Phase 2 development of Avena Bella, however, the City is still putting financing together for the project.

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