BY GARTH STAPLEY

CV Journalism Collaborative

Modesto native Heath Flora, the top Republican in the California Assembly, has lost the support of local party leaders in both of the largest counties he represents.

In a stunning rebuke to the Assembly minority leader, the Stanislaus GOP party overwhelmingly voted in January to endorse his fellow Republican opponent instead of Flora in the upcoming primary election.

And shocking as that was, the party in Flora’s adopted homebase – San Joaquin County (officially, he hails from Ripon) – on Feb. 2 also turned its back on him. That group opted rather to endorse Lodi’s Jim Shoemaker for the Ninth Assembly District, which includes Hughson, Escalon, Oakdale, Riverbank, Salida and Waterford.

“We heard from multiple elected officials from agencies throughout the district, and multiple constituents, all saying the same thing – Assemblyman Heath Flora and his staff have been virtually nonexistent in the district for years,” said Joel Campos, Stanislaus County Republican Party chairman.

Shoemaker lost two previous races for other offices. But, “Jim is present, a visible force, going around helping people for many years,” said David Cushman, Republican Party chairman in San Joaquin County. “People don’t feel the same about Heath.”

Flora did not return messages left with his staff in Sacramento.

A Lodi-area Democrat, Matthew Adams, also is running.

In 2025, Flora donated $25,000 from his campaign fund to Republican central committees in both Sutter and San Bernardino counties, according to the Cal-Access database – while tossing a $750 bone to Stanislaus and none to San Joaquin, where most voters in his district live.

That lack of monetary support was “the nail in the coffin,” Campos said. “It was felt that he’s not prioritizing his own district.”

Flora didn’t attend when candidates personally asked for endorsements of Stanislaus and San Joaquin GOP central committees, Campos and Cushman said.

Bottom of Form

Shoemaker appeared at both, winning 21 of 27 votes from the Stanislaus central committee and 19 of 20 from San Joaquin’s central committee. He also persuaded party leaders in Amador County to back his candidacy.

Together, Stanislaus (with 22.4% of voters in the Ninth District), San Joaquin (58.4%) and Amador (2.4%)  comprise more than 83% of the Ninth Assembly District. The rest is in small sections of Sacramento and Calaveras counties. 

State party leaders normally get behind a candidate with that magnitude of local support. But backing an opponent to the Assembly GOP leader is almost unthinkable, leaving California’s Republican bosses with an awkward choice before the June 2 primary election.

Flora weighed down by baggage

Less important to party leaders, Campos and Cushman said, is baggage that embarrassed Flora in a blistering October report by The Sacramento Bee’s Kate Wolffe. 

She found that Flora doesn’t live in the Modesto home registered as his “legal domicile”; has claimed taxpayer-funded per diem reimbursements meant for lawmakers who commute more than 50 miles even though he lives in Sacramento; and a court order forced him to pay child support. The Bee also tracked down a former lobbyist who had an affair with Flora while he was married. 

He has not publicly addressed the allegations.

“While Flora’s actions do not appear to be illegal,” Wolffe wrote, “the revelations make him an odd fit to lead a party that claims to represent family values and often bemoans Democrats’ lack of transparency.”

The Modesto Focus interviewed six GOP insiders, including voting and nonvoting attendees of local endorsement meetings. All confirmed the characterization by Campos and Cushman of Flora’s attitude toward local needs.

Republican activism becomes more conservative

David Colnic, a political science professor at Stanislaus State University in Turlock, said the local parties are a microcosm of nationwide polarity, with Republicans moving farther to the right and Democrats to the left.

“What we’re seeing here are the party activists moving away,” Colnic said. “I don’t think Flora changed; I think party activists have changed.”

In Capitol voting, Flora consistently and loyally favors conservative interests more than most other legislators, according to an ideology meter of the CalMatters Digital Democracy database.

In the last session, donors gave his campaign $1.2 million – 163% higher than the average legislator, according to Digital Democracy’s analysis of data from Open Secrets.

Flora has not faced a serious challenge since he was first elected 10 years ago with 52.3% of the vote over another Republican. Since then, his victories have all been landslides; two years ago, for instance, he won more than 70% of the vote against a third-party opponent when Democrats didn’t even field a candidate.

He once had institutional and statewide party support as well, rising to the pinnacle of Assembly GOP leadership a few days before The Bee’s exposé last fall. 

It’s a heady time at the Capitol for Stanislaus political junkies, with two native sons rising as high as possible in the Assembly superminority. Standing at Flora’s shoulder as GOP caucus chair, or second in command, is Juan Alanis, R-Modesto. 

The last Stanislaus politician at this level was Kristin Olsen, who lasted 14 months as Assembly minority leader before her Republicans colleagues in Sacramento replaced her.

Will lack of local endorsements hurt Flora on Election Day?

A legislator facing little threat at home could be well-positioned for demands of a leadership role, said Nathan Monroe, director of UC Merced’s Center for Analytic Political Engagement. Looking at Flora’s impressive reelection record over the years, “he is an incredibly safe candidate, in a two-party sense,” Monroe said. 

Do average voters pay much attention to endorsements of local party leaders?

Probably not, Monroe said. But voters tend to listen when someone visits their home with a political message, he said, and central committees have an important role in organizing such outreach.

“It’s a bigger deal in terms of what it says about the local party’s willingness to do boots-on-the-ground door-knocking for you,” Monroe said.

Shoemaker told The Modesto Focus, “Heath is now going to have to actually run an election campaign, which he hasn’t had to do in many years.”

On its face, challenging Flora is “nuts, crazy,” opponent admits

Shoemaker is known to voters in San Joaquin County, where he owned construction, trucking and pool companies. In his first political foray in 2022, he finished third in an eight-way primary for a congressional seat captured by Rep. Josh Harder, and Shoemaker was bested by Jerry McNerney in 2024 for a state Senate seat.

Shoemaker declined when first approached to challenge Flora, Shoemaker said. 

“To run against the highest guy in the Assembly would be nuts, crazy,” Shoemaker said. He changed his mind after hearing dissatisfaction with Flora, he said – over and over.

“I show up,” Shoemaker said.

The Stanislaus Republican Party officially supports Alanis, but did not issue an endorsement in the state Senate District 4 race featuring incumbent Marie Alvarado-Gil and GOP challenger Alexandra Duarte. Neither was able to capture 75% of the local central committee vote – unlike Shoemaker.

Alvarado-Gil, elected in 2022 as a Democrat, switched to the GOP in August 2024 and initially faced two Republican opponents in Duarte and former Hughson Mayor Jeramy Young. But he announced at the central committee’s Feb. 2 meeting that he was suspending his campaign and will support Duarte.

A commenter on Shoemaker’s Instagram site left this wry observation: “In Stanislaus County we don’t pick sides – we split them.”

— Garth Stapley is the accountability reporter for The Modesto Focus, a project of the nonprofit Central Valley Journalism Collaborative. Contact him at garth@cvlocaljournalism.org.