California’s population growth is stagnating.
However, the Northern San Joaquin Valley will continue to grow.
That is the bottom line of a state Department of Finance projection of growth trends in California through 2060 using 2020 as the base year. The projection was made this week.
The three-county Northern San Joaquin Valley region — San Joaquin, Stanislaus, and Merced counties — is expected to grow by 310,066 residents by 2060.
California, as a whole, is projected to have 11,079 fewer residents in 2060 than it did in 2020.
The state’s 2060 population is pegged at 39,508,921.
Using the Department of Finances’ methodology, California’s population will peak at 40,153,476 in 2043.
The Northern Joaquin Valley is one of three regions in California anticipated to see solid growth.
The others are the Sacramento Area consisting of Sacramento, Placer, and Yolo counties plus the Inland Empire comprised of Riverside and San Bernadino counties.
The three regions are projected to grow a combined 969,000 residents by 2060.
The Sacramento Area will lead the way with a gain of 375,214, followed by the Northern San Joaquin Valley at 310,066, and then the Inland Empire at 284,000.
Within the Northern San Joaquin Valley:
*San Joaquin County is expected to grow by 196,119 to reach 976,326 in 2060.
*Merced County is expected to grow by 57,338 to reach 338,247 by 2060.
*Stanislaus County is expected to grow by 55,809 to reach 609,615 in 2060.
To put the regional growth in perspective:
*The three county region anticipated gain of 310,066 essentially adds another city the current size of Stockton at 322,210.
The big loser in the state’s projections is Los Angeles County, which is expected to lose 1.7 million residents by 2060. That would leave LA County with 8.2 million residents.