All politics are local, or is that loco?

And nothing is more local and loco than the push by Donald Trump to essentially turn Congressional redistricting process into a non-stop game that could essentially take place every two years instead of every 10 years.

 Donald Trump wants Texas Republicans to redistrict the state ahead of the 2026 midterms in a manner that gives the party the chance at five potentially winnable seats that are now held by Democrats.

Texas has 38 Congressional seats. Of those, 25 are held by Republicans, 12 by Democrats, and one is vacant.

Gavin Newsom is no fool.

It is why he is proposing California to do the same thing.

California has 52 Congressional seats. Of those 43 are Democrats, and 9 are Republicans.

Keep in mind, redistricting has to use the official Census count. That means, any re-districting has to still be based on the 2020 population count.

To counter a Texas gambit by the Republicans to create five more winnable seats for the Democrats in California in the 2026 midterm elections, there are clearly three districts in Southern California that are now held marginally by Republicans that are clearly low-hanging fruit.

The problem is how to create two more winnable districts for the Democrats in California to equal the five the Republicans believe they can become winnable for them that are now held by Democrats by redrawing boundaries in the Lone State.

There are none in the Bay Area.

And you’d have to be on a bizarre LSD trip if you are a Democratic strategist and you think Northern California — where the State of Jefferson sentient makes that region of the state so deep red that it makes Texas Republicans come off as left leaning liberals — has districts you can flip.

That leaves the San Joaquin Valley as the likely target for pretzel-style gerrymandering to  create two more winnable Congressional seats currently held by Republicans.

All or major swaths of the San Valley are represented by:

*Democrat Josh Harder for the 9th District that includes also all of San Joaquin County minus Lathrop and rural south Manteca and rural south and east Tracy.

*Democrat Jim Costa for the 21st District that has Fresno at its heart.

*Democrat Adam Gray for the 13th District that includes half of Turlock, Lathrop as well as rural south Manteca, rural south and east Tracy, and much of the westside of the San Joaquin Valley.

*Republican Tim McClintock for 5th District that includes the bulk of Stanislaus County (including the other half of Turlock), much of the eastside of the San Joaquin Valley, and much of the eastern suburbs of Sacramento.

*Republican David Valadao for the 22nd District that includes east Bakersfield plus a large swath of both mid-valley and southwest San Joaquin Valley.

*Republican Vince Fong for the 20th District that includes a large swath of the southeast San Joaquin Valley including much of Bakersfield.

If Newson starts playing slice and dice with current Congressional seats in defense of the Democratic Party — and who could blame him — clearly the 9th district would enter the mix.

Any shift in the districts now represented by Fong and Valadao to make them more likely to go Democratic would require a northern push.

Ripon, as an example, would be in the mix to go to the 5th District since the most likely target would be to switch out Republican strongholds to the stronger Republican seats.

If Texas and California do a mid-decade redistricting dance, there is little chance San Joaquin County will escape unscathed.

The 9th District as it sits has higher Democratic registration numbers that Republicans as do most Congressional districts in the Golden State. In San Joaquin County, its 41 percent Democrat and 28.4 percent Republican.

But there is a wild card.

And that’s San Joaquin County’s trend in the most recent presidential elections.

The 2024 election marked the first time since 2004 when a Republican presidential candidate has carried San Joaquin County.

That’s when George W. Bush  was at the top of the Republican ticket.

For the last three presidential elections prior to 2024, San Joaquin County has gone Democrat by roughly a 14 percent margin.

*In 2020, Joe Biden 55.61 percent, Trump 41.78 percent.

*In 2016, Hillary Clinton 53.36 percent, Trump 39.18 percent.

*In 2012, Barrack Obama 55.57 percent, Mitt Romney 41.91 percent.

In 2024, Donald Trump claimed 48.92 percent of the San Joaquin County vote compared to 48.03 percent for Kamala Harris.

 It is not too far of a stretch to credit the shift to growth that has brought a lot of independent voters who lean Republican to San Joaquin County.

Harder wins re-election handily because he is a moderate and the Republican candidates for Congress running against him tend not to venture too much into the moderate zone.

The right Republican candidate, if there is one out there, could pose a problem for Harder given  the rapid growth of the southern part of the county.

As such, the Democrats would be remiss not to try and pump up the 9th District to add protection to a seat Republicans consider winnable.

But meddling also represents a danger.

That’s because the 13th District that includes Turlock and Lathrop was won by Gray by beating the Republican incumbent by 187 votes

Clearly, it would be in the Democrats’ best interests to strengthen their hand in the 13th given Harder was re-elected in the 9th by a 9,001 vote margin over Kevin Lincoln.

Any redistricting to strip two Republican incumbents that represent other parts of the San Joaquin Valley of their Congressional seat would likely cause such contorted gerrymandering  that it likely wouldn’t survive a court test even in the 9th District Court of Appeals.

The best strategy for the Democrats should they do a redistrict for the mid-terms in 2026 would be to target the three SoCal seats and make sure the 13th District stays Republican.

The only way to do that using the 2020 census likely would involve extending the 13th district into south Stockton.

It would require jettisoning Republican areas closest to the 5th District to the east which in turn would like lead to shifting some of McClintock’s conservative base into Costa’s solid Fresno seat to keep the district numbers relatively equal in terms of overall population.

If Newsom — and the Democrats — simply dialed back some of their positions to somewhat middle-of-the-road, they should be able to pick off a seat or two held by Republicans.

But if they open what is essential Pandora’s Box, they could up in a legal quagmire that paints them in a bad light with independents or it could backfire.

The urge to go toe-to-toe with Trump on this one might be justified.

That said, once you drink the Kool-Aid being served up, the high road — if there is any such thing in politics today — will be lost forever.