Democrat Jaron Brandon, a Tuolumne County supervisor, and Republican Alexandra Duarte will square off in their first head-to-head debate with the race for the District 4 state Senate seat is less than 60 days away.
The one-hour debate will be held 7 a.m. Thursday at Greens on Tenth – 953 10th St. – in Modesto. Admission is $20. The event is co-sponsored by the League of Women Voters of Stanislaus County, the Rotary clubs of Modesto, and the Modesto Focus.
The candidates shared a debate stage in April, but Republican state Sen. Marie Alvarado-Gil was part of that discussion. The incumbent was ousted from the race in the June primary (only the top two vote recipients advance to the general election), leaving just Brandon and Duarte, the wife of former Congressman John Duarte, who represented the 13th Congressional District.
In June, Brandon was the top vote recipient, with nearly 107,000 votes, while Duarte garnered about 84,000 votes. Alvarado-Gil was third with just over 69,000 votes. If Brandon can siphon off a third (23,000) of the Alvarado-Gil votes, leaving two-thirds (46,000) for Duarte – that would give each candidate roughly 130,000 votes. Of course, more than 260,000 total voters are likely to turn out on Nov. 3, which would change the mathematics – something on which the Brandon campaign is counting.
“We believe Jaron has a clear path to victory,” said Brandon campaign manager Brian Eugeni. “Based on the primary results, he needs to win over roughly one-third of the people who voted for Marie Alvarado-Gil, while also increasing Democratic turnout in November. We are confident that Jaron can earn those votes by continuing to show up, listen to people, and make his case directly to voters throughout all 13 counties.”
District 4 is the largest in the state, area-wise, hugging the Nevada border from north of Lake Tahoe (close to Reno) to south of Death Valley (not far from Las Vegas), then jutting out toward the Santa Clara County line (near Silicon Valley). It is bigger than 10 U.S. states, and includes all or pieces of 13 counties, eight different area codes, 16 tribal nations, and more than 1 million total constituents.
Alvarado-Gil, who resides in the Gold Rush community of Jackson, received just 26.6 percent of the overall vote in June, but fared better in the Sierra foothill counties of Alpine, Amador, El Dorado, Mariposa, Mono, and Tuolumne. Brandon, himself a son of the Sierra, handily won all those counties save for Alvarado-Gil’s home county of Amador, where he trailed by just a few percentage points.
Additionally, Alvarado-Gil is a former Democrat who switched party affiliations in the middle of her term. It’s unclear how many of her votes came from Democrats or Republicans.
Notably, Alvarado-Gil has not yet endorsed her fellow Republican. In the days leading up to the primary, the incumbent took umbrage with a campaign mailer that featured an image of Duarte firing a pistol in the direction of an image of Alvarado-Gil on a tin can.
But according to political insider Mike Lynch, who’s been involved with political campaigns for more than 40 years, Duarte is regarded as the betting favorite.
“I think Brandon has done a great campaign,” said Lynch, owner of Mike Lynch consulting in Modesto. “But I think the district makeup – even in a year that most people think is going to be a Democratic year – is too high a mountain to climb.”
District 4 is considered a red district, with Republicans making up 39 percent of the electorate and Democrats accounting for 34 percent.
Brandon will also be in Stanislaus County on Wednesday when he attends the Be Informed Candidate Forum in Ceres from 12:15 to 1 p.m. at the Ceres Community Center, 2701 Fourth St.
A message left with a member of Duarte’s campaign staff was not returned.
