It appears the political career of incumbent state Sen. Marie Alvarado-Gil (R-Jackson) is drawing to a close.

Democrat Jaron Brandon and Republican Alexandra Duarte have increased their lead over incumbent state Sen. Marie Alvarado-Gil (R-Jackson), who now trails by nearly 9,000 votes in the race for the District 4 seat.

The top two vote recipients in Tuesday’s primary election advance to the Nov. 3 General Election – and late-inning comeback seems virtually impossible for the freshman senator.

Efforts by the Journal to contact the Alvarado-Gil Friday were unsuccessful, but a post on her personal Facebook account sems to indicate she knows it’s over.

“Like you, I have seen the unofficial election results tonight and believe that in the morning God will reveal His next plan for me,” she wrote late on election night. “Until then, I want to express my immense gratitude to all the volunteers and supporters who are in my prayers tonight. May you awake to a new beginning.

“We have fought together, we have prayed together, and we will move forward together. I am so thankful for the opportunity to overlap lies with you.”

Late Tuesday night, Brandon led comfortably with 39.8 percent of the vote; Duarte was second with 32 percent; and Alvarado-Gil was on the outside looking in with 28.2 percent.

Updated totals show Brandon widening the gap with 75,349 votes (40.2 percent), Duarte still firmly in second with 60,521 votes (32.3), and Alvarado-Gil bringing up the rear with 51,569 votes (27.5).

That’s a total of 187,439 votes, about 34,000 fewer votes than were cast in the 2022 primary, though, properly postmarked mail-in ballots have until June 9 to trickle into county registrars’ offices.

According to political insider Mike Lynch, who’s been involved with political campaigns for more than 40 years, it’s a fait accompli.

“The margin is not going to narrow enough to make a difference,” said Lynch, owner of Mike Lynch Consulting in Modesto. “They’re not catchable.”

Using the 2022 primary as a baseline (a similar election when there were no presidential hopefuls on the ballot), Alvarado-Gil would need to win about 80 percent of the 34,000 hypothetical outstanding ballots – tripling her current pace – to even have a shot.

“This was an odd campaign,” said Lynch. “It was ferociously contested with mailers and texting; it was really over the top.”

Duarte, wife of former District 13 Congressman John Duarte, drew the ire of many fellow Republicans when a mailer depicting the challenger firing a gun in the direction of the senator’s image showed up in mailboxes last month. The tactic was quickly repudiated by the incumbent and several GOP county committees, some of which demanded an apology from Duarte.

“I don’t think we’ll see anything like that in November,” said Lynch, who believes Duarte will tone down her far-right rhetoric now that she’ll be the lone Republican in the race.

Alvarado-Gil’s campaign was weighed down by controversies that may have turned off key portions of her constituency. There was a public quarrel with Stanislaus County Supervisor Channce Condit over the alleged misuse of funds for a local infrastructure project; she was accused of sexual harassment by her former chief-of-staff and Channce’s father, Chad Condit; and she switched her political affiliation in the middle of her term.

District 4 is the largest senate district in the state, area-wise, and is bigger than 10 U.S. states. Though Republicans hold a slim 39-34 percent lead over Democrats in the number of registered voters, the district went for Donald Trump by 12.6 percentage points in the 2024 presidential election. That bodes well for Duarte.

“Brandon ran a great (primary) campaign,” said Lynch. “But he’s got a mountain to climb.”

Brandon, the District 5 Supervisor in Tuolumne County, is fairing even better in Stanislaus County – Duarte’s home turf – when examining isolated county figures: 45.1 percent to Duarte’s 36.5 and Alvarado-Gil’s 18.5.

Strong primary showing for Gray bodes well for November

Rep. Adam Gray (D-Merced), seeking a second term in Congress, continues to hold a comfortable lead over his challengers. Nearly 42 percent of voters in District 13 back Gray, while almost 29 percent support Republican Kevin Lincoln, the former mayor of Stockton. Republican businessman Vin Kruttiventi is a distant third with 16 percent, and Democrat Daniel Garibay Rodriguez is fourth with 13 percent.

If Gray can harness his Democratic challenger’s support and siphon off some of Kruttiventi’s, he should face an easier election this November than he did in 2024 when he ousted John Duarte by just 187 votes.

“This was a really good showing for Gray in the primary and I think he’s the likely winner in November,” said Lynch. “However, this is an odd election year. The dynamics of this election are not something we’ve seen before. By that, I mean, we’ve got a contested gubernatorial race and controversial ballot measure that will drive the turnout on both sides. And the X-factor in all this is that we don’t know if the democratic electoral process will continue as we know it. The president has already issued directives on mail-in ballots. He’s tried to pass the (Safeguard American Voter Eligibility) Act, which failed in the senate but would’ve had an enormous impact on voter turnout. There are a lot of things we just don’t know about.”